|
|
Severe winter weather sweeping the country this week won't just have a big impact on your holiday travel plans, but po sibly all of your NFL rooting interests.Saturday could be the most impactful NFL weather day on record. With playoff lives, fantasy championships and more, at stake, we've got you covered on the potential fallout on the impacted games. Let's just say, anytime you hear the phrases "bomb cyclone" and "polar vortex", it's probably a good idea to check your fantasy lineup again, for starters.Eight games on Saturday are currently scheduled for below freezing kickoff temperatures, which would be an NFL record for a single day. All eight are also forecasted to have 10-plus mile per hour winds.How could this impact the overall NFL landscape?Cold weather has little impact on league scoring. Since 2000, league-wide scoring drops le s than two points per game in freezing temperatures, while pa sing and rushing numbers don't move significantly.LEAGUE-WIDE COMBINED OFFENSE SINCE 2000FREEZING TEMPERATURESOTHER GAMESPPG42.444.2Pa s yards per game412446Rush yards per game245228Wind has more of an impact on offensive production, especially if it hits 15-plus miles per hour. In those games, you lose about a touchdown compared with indoor games, and four points from an average game. Saints-Browns, Bills-Bears, Bengals-Patriots, Falcons-Ravens and Raiders-Steelers are currently the games in that territory.LEAGUE-WIDE COMBINED OFFENSE SINCE 2000: WIND Leon Draisaitl Women Jersey IMPACTINDOOR0-910-1415+PPG46.944.342.140.5Pa s yards per game472448423397Rush yards per game226227230240The impact of both cold weather combined with wind can be truly detrimental to an offense. Forty-four games since 2000 have featured freezing temperatures and 15-plus mile per hour winds. Those games averaged 37.9 points per game. To put that into perspective, of the 32 teams, only the see a lower combined scoring Yohann Auvitu Men Jersey average in their games this year.NFL COMBINED SCORING SINCE 2000PPGAverage game44.2Freezing temperatures42.415+ MPH winds40.5Freezing temps & 15+ MPH winds37.9Our experts, Chris Towers (fantasy), R.J. White (betting), and myself (facts/playoff stakes), dive into each cold game and the impacts acro s the board.8 degrees, RealFeel of -2228 mph wind, gusts up to 46 mphCloudy, a snow shower; very cold, blowing and drifting snowFact to KnowThis could be the first game with 25-plus mile per hour winds since the Patriots-Bills 14-10 slugfest in Buffalo last year where the attempted just three pa ses. The current Over/Under point total of 31.5 is the lowest in a game since 2008 (Browns/Bengals).Playoff StakesBoth teams are still alive in the playoff hunt, but have under 5 percent chances to reach the postseason, per SportsLine projections. You'd think the weather would impact the more, as they leave the friendly confines of the Superdome, but it will be easily the coldest game of career, ahead of last week's game against the (32 degrees).Fantasy ImpactThe concern here is definitely more around the wind forecasts. Snow tends to have a slightly negative impact on pa sing production (and a slightly positive impact on rushing production), but wind is the much bigger concern. Teams are more likely to go run-heavy in cold, windy environments, and these are two teams that already want to limit po se sions and run the ball. If the forecast holds, I wouldn't be surprised to see neither QB attempt 30 pa ses. If (foot) is out, this could make a potential top-10 RB.Betting ImpactThe total is an automatic Under play even in the low 30s if forecast holds. Cleveland team total Under 16.5 is a good look as well with Chubb managing an injury. The Saints could be in a better position to take advantage of weather than run-heavy as they can lean heavily into the package. Unders likely for all pa sing/receiving props.12 degrees, RealFeel of -1423 mph wind, gusts up to 33 mphCloudy with blowing and drifting snowWinter Storm Watch in effect through late Friday nightFact to Know has nine touchdown pa ses and no interceptions in his last two games in freezing temperatures (2021 Wild Card vs Patriots and last Saturday vs ).Playoff StakesBrutal winter weather is nothing new to the , who can clinch a third straight AFC East title with a win OR Dolphins lo s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Men Jersey this week.Fantasy ImpactWe saw the Bills play in snowy conditions a bit last week, and between the weather and the opponent, I wouldn't be surprised to see a more run-heavy approach from them. That's in keeping with recent trends for them anyway, as Allen has attempted 34 or fewer pa ses in five of his past eight games. The key question will be whether the can score enough to force the Bills to have to pa s. This could be a game where sees a dozen or so carries, making him a viable sleeper with a good matchup.Betting ImpactTotals in Bears games are usually high with the state of their defense and able to lead the offense to points consistently. The total here tells you the weather matters for the Bills' pa sing attack, and that should give the Bears a great chance at covering as underdogs of more than a TD at home just like they did against Philadelphia last week. QB rushing props will be key and likely to be Over plays on both sides.20 degrees, RealFeel of 1012 mph wind, gusts up to 20 mphPartly sunny and breezyFact to KnowThe have never played a home game in Tenne see with a kickoff temperature below 23 degrees.Playoff StakesThe Titans are protecting a one-game lead over the in the AFC South, but won't have , who played one of his best games of the season in freezing temperatures at Lambeau Field last month. Tenne see can still lean on , who has four straight 200-yard rushing games against the , including his last one with Wayne Gretzky Jersey starting.Fantasy ImpactHere's another one where the team's tendencies align with how this kind of weather tends to impact football games. The Titans, obviously, want to run the ball a ton, and that'll be especially true if Willis has to start in place of an injured Tannehill. The Texans are le s inclined to run the ball, especially without , but seeing as how the Titans managed just 17 points in both of Willis' previous two starts, it's unlikely they're going to need to throw much.Betting Impact Wind is not as much of a factor here, but Tenne see should be locked in on running the ball as it did in the first Houston meeting when Willis was quarterback. He went 6-for-10 for 55 yards in that game as Henry topped 200 rushing yards, so you cannot make his rushing prop high enough here. If Tannehill is ruled out and spread drops below 4, Titans are the way to look.17 degrees, RealFeel of -116 mph wind, gusts up to 47 mphPartly sunny and breezy with a snow shower40% chance of precipitationFact to Know is 5-0 with a 119.9 pa ser rating in the five coldest games of his NFL career, Ryan McLeod Jersey including playoffs.Playoff Stakes"We're on to Cincinnati" would be one phrase for the Patriots to embrace as they cling to their playoff lives (27 percent chance) after Sunday's all-time blunder against the . A home game in freezing temperatures, even as underdogs against the , could be just what the doctor ordered. That might not bother Joe "Cool", though, as the Bengals protect a one-game division lead over Baltimore.Fantasy ImpactI think the key to watch here will be whether the wind is projected to pick up and whether the chances of snow increase as the week goes on. If the weather looks like it's going to clear up, I'd expect a relatively normal game plan from both teams.Betting ImpactWeather shouldn't be a big factor in this game, but the perception of all outdoor games dealing with bad weather could put value on pa sing and receiving Overs in this game, particularly on the Cincinnati side. A line of Patriots +3.5 may look tempting with the hook, but they've lost three times by double digits against top offenses this year and the Bengals are 11-1 ATS in the last 12.15 degrees, RealFeel of 213 mph wind, gusts up to 18 mphSunny and breezyFact to Know is 8-1 with 23 touchdown pa ses, 318 pa sing yards per game and a 112.0 pa ser rating in his career in freezing temperatures. His only lo s was the 37-31 overtime thriller against the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship ga
Click here Click here Click here |
|
Опубликовано 2023-10-23 06:55:19
Избранное
Закладки
Плюс
Минус