2023 NFL awards predictions Best rookies feature interesting trends Chargers and Pats have long shots

ymakerpi8d

Thanks to the widespread proliferation Jordan Nwora Jersey  of legalized sports betting, we've seen an explosion of available markets in terms of awards. Which is fantastic because the MVP market is, as I noted whilelast week, quite the me s due to longer shots winning the award several times in the last few years. The  offer much more viable long shots to land a winner.As with the other awards we've discu sed (see: links above), I'll have some best bets, some midrange bets and some long shots for both the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards. But first some general theories about how to attack these specific markets.Since 2011, five quarterbacks, four running backs and three wide receivers have won OROY. The wideout trend feels like a fluke to me -- had a bad draft cla s and was a huge underdog until going off for 266 yards against the in a late-season, high-profile game; was -1000 to win the award at the time (seriously). OBJ went nuke bomb over 12 games with a signature moment. Notably, quarterbacks don't need good records to win this award -- , and won six or le s games their first year, (insane offensive line plus , who should have won?) and (incredible season with a coaching staff unleashing the option on the world) were the only playoff quarterbacks. went nuts but the seasons for , Toddy Gurley and aren't as monster as you think, they just looked like elite D.J. Augustin Jersey  talents as rookies. Short version: lean QB here with any value but running backs are more likely to win.Defensively, we have a mixed bag. Three cornerbacks have won but you need to be elite in a big market with a meh cla s () or make big splash plays (, ). Or you can be a multi-faceted linebacker like a , or Shaq Leonard. More than likely sacks and pre sures win this for you, with , , , , , and winning since 2011 (and Leonard had seven his rookie seaosn).  There's probably nothing more important than an archetype for an award so let's unlock some winners. Because the market here is worse we're making (20-1) our midrange point instead of (25-1) from previous articles.Best Top Bet: , Panthers (+400)This number is terrible, so I probably wouldn't bet it, but the were a slightly below-average in a bad division last year. They went from Matt Rhule to Frank Reich (you have NO IDEA what an upgrade this is but wait until the season starts). They picked first overall despite not being the worst team and got the best quarterback in the draft. left their division for retirement. If Young and the Panthers win 8+ games and he looks good he probably wins this award; if he wins his division it's over. In the NFC South those two things aren't mutually exclusive.Best Midrange Option: , Chargers (20-1)Both and have dealt Jaylen Adams Jersey  with injuries. Suggesting either is injury prone would be quite dumb but even if they're both healthy this is a silly number for an elite vertical receiver like TCU's finest in Johnston. Justin Herbert throws the best deep ball in the NFL and Johnston can run hot without exce sive coverage in a new scheme.  Best Long shot: , Jaguars (50-1). , Colts (40-1)If you listen to the Pick Six Podcast () you would have had Bigsby at a  Matthew Dellavedova Jersey better number when our own Pete Prisco pointed out how he's going to be a goal line guy this year. If anything happens to and the quarterbacks aren't good, Bigsby is a real good lottery ticket. Downs is mostly an "I've seen him and he's great" bet -- isn't a touch throw rookie quarterback, the might be run heavy and Downs is very much a slot guy. But I'll bet on talent I trust at that price -- maybe he's the underneath tight end supplement for Richardson and rips off big YAC.Best Top Bet: , Commanders (15-1)Very tough DROY cla s and the market reflects it. Forbes is the pick here because he has very elite ball skills plus very, VERY elite "take the ball to the house" skills (six in a season for Mi si sippi State). If you want to back a defensive back for this award, you back one who can house a few turnovers. The Washington defense is good enough not to lean on him, which means he could end up having even more opportunities for big plays.Best Midrange Option: , Broncos (30-1)If you've read anything I've written pre-draft you know I love Drew Sanders. Fans got mad pre-draft because no one wants a linebacker but he's exactly the type of player Sean Payton will tell Vance Joseph to unleash on a situational basis to rush the pa ser. And if he piles up sacks, he's a prime candidate to sneak this award.  Best Long shot: , Patriots (100-1)? If this were five years ago, a third-round pick would be a quarter of this number. New England will be better than people think and Mapu is getting a touch of warmth during training camp. If you don't want to hit triple digits on a third-round Sacramento State linebacker for DROY pick while  Ersan Ilyasova Jersey the entire world is fading Bill Belichick then you don't want to live.
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